January & February 2004

Through a kaleidoscope

2003 has been anything but dull. Corporate mergers, divestments and acquisitions have shuffled the pack of pharma, biotech and food ingredient companies which are different today to what they were 12 months ago. How have these industries fared in 2003?

The antibiotics sector continues its dual track. The high road involving development of antibiotics to combat hospital infections by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus or Pseudomonas aeruginosa, typically Pfizer's linezolid. The low road involves production of generic versions of patent-expired antibiotics by Indian and Chinese companies who refuse to abide by any standards of manufacturing costs and sell at the lowest rate. The net result is the current depressed price of penicillin G at $7/bou. Will this dual track winds its way through 2004? See our survey: 'The Antibiotics Industry - Current Status and Outlook by 2010' .

The amino acids business has seen net growth during 2003. The consumption of lysine, threonine and methionine in feeds is increasing steadily and main producers have increased capacity. Monosodium glutamate used as a flavour enhancer is also growing particularly in S.E. Asian countries. Are there opportunities for newcomers with excess fermentation capacity? See our surveys: 'Lysine, Methionine & Threonine - Current Status and Outlook' and 'Monosodium Glutamate - Current Status and Outlook' '.

The past year has seen a substantial increase in capacity for biotech plants including bacterial and mammalian cell culture. As a result of the new generation of vaccines and monoclonal antibodies which have become widely-established there has been need for more capacity. From 2005-2010 many for biotech products will expire and this may result in their production as generics. But who will do this? Maybe Chinese companies but can they get FDA approval for this difficult technology? For further details see Chapter 3 of our survey: 'The Fermentation & Biotechnology Industry - Current Capacity and Capacity Requirements by 2010'.

Any predictions for the next year is like peering into a kaleidoscope - a pattern may emerge but is liable to change with the slightest move. Of the hand. To paraphrase a Chinese sage : We live in interesting times